1–15 December
Early December: go high or go west
Natural snow is a gamble almost everywhere in the first half of December. Here is where the odds are best, and where you are relying on snowmaking.
The short answer
Only one resort we model comes close to a sure thing this early. Whistler Blackcomb had a skiable 30 cm of natural snow at mid-mountain on 98% of days across eleven seasons, and even its worst early December managed 80%.
In the Alps, the reliable choices are the high ones. Chamonix, Zermatt, Cervinia and Tignes all sit between 84% and 89%. But every one of them except Chamonix has had an early December in the last eleven with no skiable natural snow at mid-mountain at all.
Snow to the door
Val Thorens is the only Alpine resort where the village itself usually has snow this early, on 58% of days, thanks to its 1,800 m base. Elsewhere, expect to ride a lift down at the end of the day.
What to avoid
Lower resorts are mostly not ready: Kitzbühel (22%), Grandvalira (14%) and Stowe (12%). Even Niseko, which fills up dramatically from late December, scores just 15%. Snowmaking will cover some of this; natural snow won’t.
How to read this
These figures are conservative. Checked against snow stations, our model reads 20% to 60% shallower than measured snow, so a resort rated usually skiable may well be better in practice. A resort that rates poorly here is relying on snowmaking.