Explainer
The best and worst recent winters for natural snow
Which of the last 11 winters had the most and least natural snow in the Alps, North America, Japan and New Zealand.
Every winter is different
Eleven winters is not enough to show a trend, but it is plenty to show how much one season differs from the next. Below, each region’s winters from 2014/15 to 2024/25 are ranked by the share of peak-season days with 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow at mid-mountain, averaged across the resorts Cirque models there.
The Alps
Peak season, January to March. Best winter: 2017/18 (100% of days). Worst: 2016/17 (84%). Ranked: 2017/18 100%, 2019/20 100%, 2020/21 99%, 2023/24 99%, 2018/19 97%, 2014/15 95%, 2024/25 95%, 2022/23 95%, 2021/22 94%, 2015/16 87%, 2016/17 84%.
North America
Peak season, January to March. Best winter: 2018/19 (100% of days). Worst: 2015/16 (90%). Ranked: 2018/19 100%, 2019/20 100%, 2024/25 100%, 2023/24 99%, 2016/17 99%, 2021/22 98%, 2022/23 98%, 2017/18 95%, 2020/21 93%, 2014/15 93%, 2015/16 90%.
Japan
Peak season, January to March. Best winter: 2016/17 (100% of days). Worst: 2015/16 (96%). Ranked: 2016/17 100%, 2017/18 100%, 2018/19 100%, 2019/20 100%, 2020/21 100%, 2021/22 100%, 2022/23 100%, 2023/24 100%, 2024/25 100%, 2014/15 97%, 2015/16 96%.
New Zealand
Peak season, July to September. Best winter: 2018 (97% of days). Worst: 2014 (25%). Ranked: 2018 97%, 2015 82%, 2022 79%, 2017 76%, 2019 67%, 2023 60%, 2021 56%, 2020 56%, 2024 49%, 2016 49%, 2014 25%.
What it means for booking
Even the surest resorts have off years, and a poor winter in one region is often a good one elsewhere. If your dates are fixed, pick a resort and height that has been snow-sure in most winters; if your destination is fixed, pick the dates that have been.
Questions
What was the worst recent winter for natural snow in the Alps?
Of the last 11, 2016/17: across the resorts Cirque models, mid-mountain had 30 cm or more on 84% of January to March days, against 100% in 2017/18.
What was the worst recent winter for natural snow in North America?
Of the last 11, 2015/16: across the resorts Cirque models, mid-mountain had 30 cm or more on 90% of January to March days, against 100% in 2018/19.
What was the worst recent winter for natural snow in Japan?
Of the last 11, 2015/16: across the resorts Cirque models, mid-mountain had 30 cm or more on 96% of January to March days, against 100% in 2016/17.
Is snow getting less reliable?
Eleven winters show how much one season differs from the next, not a long-term trend. Cirque does not draw trend conclusions from this record.