Christmas and New Year skiing: where natural snow is surest

The short answer

Late December is early in the season. Natural snow is reliable high up and in the snowiest parts of North America and Japan; lower down, Christmas snow is a gamble.

Over the Christmas and New Year holidays (16 December to 15 January), 10 of the 29 northern-hemisphere resorts Cirque models were snow-sure in at least 9 of the last 11 winters, meaning mid-mountain had 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow on at least 90% of days. The surest: Chamonix (11 of 11 winters), Whistler Blackcomb (11 of 11 winters), Revelstoke (11 of 11 winters), Jackson Hole (11 of 11 winters) and Tignes (10 of 11 winters).

The Alps

Snow-sure: Chamonix (11 of 11), Tignes (10 of 11), Zermatt (10 of 11), Cervinia (10 of 11), Verbier (9 of 11) and Val Thorens (9 of 11). Usually good: Courchevel (8 of 11), St. Anton (8 of 11), Ischgl (8 of 11), Les Deux Alpes (8 of 11) and Obergurgl (8 of 11). Hit and miss: Cortina d’Ampezzo (6 of 11). A gamble: Kitzbühel (3 of 11) and Val Gardena (3 of 11).

Northern Europe and the Pyrenees

Usually good: Hemsedal (7 of 11). Hit and miss: Åre (4 of 11). A gamble: Grandvalira (1 of 11).

North America

Snow-sure: Whistler Blackcomb (11 of 11), Revelstoke (11 of 11), Jackson Hole (11 of 11) and Banff Sunshine (9 of 11). Usually good: Vail (8 of 11), Aspen Snowmass (8 of 11) and Big Sky (7 of 11). Hit and miss: Alta (6 of 11) and Mammoth Mountain (6 of 11). A gamble: Stowe (3 of 11).

Japan

Usually good: Hakuba Valley (8 of 11). Hit and miss: Niseko United (5 of 11).

Snow down to the village

If you want to ski back to your door, the village figure matters more than mid-mountain. Only one village Cirque models had 30 cm or more on most days over Christmas and New Year: Val Thorens (83% of days).

Go high

At Les Deux Alpes, Courchevel, St. Anton, Ischgl, Obergurgl, Vail, Aspen Snowmass, Big Sky, Hakuba Valley and Hemsedal, the summit was snow-sure in at least 9 of the last 11 winters over Christmas and New Year when mid-mountain was not. Plan to ski the top of the mountain.

Questions

Where is the best snow for skiing at Christmas and New Year?

Among the northern-hemisphere resorts Cirque models, Chamonix (11 of 11 winters), Whistler Blackcomb (11 of 11 winters), Revelstoke (11 of 11 winters), Jackson Hole (11 of 11 winters) and Tignes (10 of 11 winters) have had the most reliable natural snow over the Christmas and New Year holidays (16 December to 15 January).

Is there enough snow to ski at Christmas and New Year?

It depends on height and region: 10 of 29 resorts Cirque models were snow-sure in at least 9 of the last 11 winters. Elsewhere, ski high or rely on snowmaking.

Does this include snowmaking?

No. These are modelled natural snow figures only, from ERA5 weather. Groomed pistes with snowmaking often ski better than this.