Since 1950: how natural snow has changed at 104 ski resorts

The short answer

In Cirque’s model, the village of 96 of the 101 resorts with a snowy village had fewer days with 30 cm or more of natural snow in recent winters (1995/96–2024/25) than in 1961/62–1990/91, typically 21 fewer a winter. At mid-mountain the change was smaller, typically 7 days, because most mid-stations are still deep in snow for almost the whole winter.

These are modelled figures. Checked against snow measured at Swiss weather stations, the same model got the direction of change right at 18 of 19 stations but overstated its size, by about 53%. At 25 stations in the western United States it got the direction right at 22 and overstated the size roughly twofold. Treat the changes below as upper estimates, and the direction as the solid part. The model is also better at the overall picture than at telling neighbouring resorts apart, so small differences between resorts in the lists below mean little.

How it is worked out

Cirque runs its snow model on ERA5, the European reanalysis of the world’s weather, at each resort’s village and mid-mountain height for every winter since 1950. ERA5 is one consistent record for the whole period, so the change is not an artefact of switching sources. A figure is the days in a winter (November to April in the north, May to October in the south) with 30 cm or more of natural snow, averaged over thirty winters.

Villages: the biggest losses

1. Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy (1,224 m): 79 days, then 22, 57 fewer.

2. Sölden, Austria (1,350 m): 92 days, then 41, 51 fewer.

3. Hemsedal, Norway (625 m): 87 days, then 37, 49 fewer.

4. Arosa Lenzerheide, Switzerland (1,229 m): 81 days, then 32, 48 fewer.

5. Val Gardena, Italy (1,236 m): 51 days, then 6, 45 fewer.

6. Madonna di Campiglio, Italy (1,550 m): 134 days, then 91, 44 fewer.

7. Åre, Sweden (380 m): 73 days, then 30, 43 fewer.

8. Saalbach Hinterglemm, Austria (1,003 m): 112 days, then 72, 40 fewer.

9. Trysil, Norway (415 m): 91 days, then 51, 40 fewer.

10. Whistler Blackcomb, Canada (675 m): 74 days, then 35, 39 fewer.

11. Laax, Switzerland (1,100 m): 69 days, then 30, 39 fewer.

12. Avoriaz, France (1,100 m): 78 days, then 40, 38 fewer.

13. Megève, France (1,113 m): 90 days, then 53, 37 fewer.

14. Davos Klosters, Switzerland (1,124 m): 55 days, then 20, 36 fewer.

15. St. Anton, Austria (1,304 m): 125 days, then 90, 35 fewer.

Left out because the village has too little natural snow in either period to measure a change: Cerro Catedral, Mayrhofen, Bansko.

Mid-mountain

1. Cerro Castor, Argentina (626 m): 135 days, then 95, 40 fewer.

2. Val Gardena, Italy (1,877 m): 162 days, then 128, 35 fewer.

3. Mt Buller, Australia (1,590 m): 101 days, then 70, 31 fewer.

4. Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany (1,385 m): 146 days, then 118, 28 fewer.

5. High1, South Korea (1,046 m): 51 days, then 24, 27 fewer.

6. Mayrhofen, Austria (1,565 m): 151 days, then 126, 25 fewer.

7. Mt Hotham, Australia (1,648 m): 87 days, then 63, 24 fewer.

8. Falls Creek, Australia (1,640 m): 106 days, then 83, 23 fewer.

9. Schladming, Austria (1,380 m): 156 days, then 133, 23 fewer.

10. Kitzbühel, Austria (1,400 m): 157 days, then 135, 22 fewer.

Where little has changed

High mid-stations in the Alps, the Rockies and the Andes, and the snowy coasts of Japan, show little change in the model: they still have 30 cm or more on almost every winter day. That is the same pattern the Swiss measurements show above 2,500 m.

Questions

Has natural snow at ski resorts declined since 1950?

In Cirque’s model, mostly yes at village level: 96 of 101 resort villages with a snowy village lost days with 30 cm or more, typically 21 a winter. The model overstates the size of the change compared with measurements, so treat the figures as upper estimates.

Why use a model and not measurements?

Long snow measurements exist for few ski resorts. Where they do, as at Swiss weather stations, Cirque publishes them, and uses them to check the model.

Does this include snowmaking?

No. These are natural snow figures only. Many resorts now make snow on most of their pistes, which keeps runs open when natural snow is thin.