Where to ski in May: the surest natural snow

The short answer

Eight of the 44 resorts Cirque models were snow-sure in May in at least 9 of the last 11 winters, meaning mid-mountain had 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow on at least 90% of May days. The surest: Tignes (11 of 11 winters), Chamonix (11 of 11 winters), Zermatt (11 of 11 winters), Cervinia (11 of 11 winters) and Val Thorens (10 of 11 winters).

13 resorts had natural snow at mid-mountain on fewer than 5% of May days, so they are left out below. The counts in brackets are snow-sure winters out of the last 11.

The Alps

Snow-sure: Tignes (11 of 11), Chamonix (11 of 11), Zermatt (11 of 11), Cervinia (11 of 11), Val Thorens (10 of 11), Verbier (10 of 11) and Les Deux Alpes (10 of 11). Usually good: Obergurgl (8 of 11) and St. Anton (7 of 11). Hit and miss: Ischgl (6 of 11) and Courchevel (4 of 11). A gamble: Cortina d’Ampezzo (2 of 11) and Val Gardena (0 of 11).

Northern Europe and the Pyrenees

A gamble: Hemsedal (2 of 11), Åre (1 of 11) and Grandvalira (1 of 11).

North America

Snow-sure: Big Sky (10 of 11). Usually good: Mammoth Mountain (8 of 11), Whistler Blackcomb (7 of 11), Jackson Hole (7 of 11) and Aspen Snowmass (7 of 11). Hit and miss: Banff Sunshine (4 of 11) and Alta (4 of 11). A gamble: Vail (2 of 11) and Revelstoke (0 of 11).

Japan

A gamble: Hakuba Valley (0 of 11) and Niseko United (0 of 11).

South America

A gamble: Las Leñas (1 of 11), Valle Nevado (1 of 11), Cerro Catedral (1 of 11) and Portillo (0 of 11).

Go high

At Courchevel, St. Anton, Ischgl, Obergurgl, Cortina d’Ampezzo, Whistler Blackcomb, Banff Sunshine, Jackson Hole, Alta, Vail, Aspen Snowmass and Mammoth Mountain, the summit was snow-sure in May in at least 9 of the last 11 winters when mid-mountain was not. If you are going to one of these in May, the top of the mountain is where natural snow has been dependable.

Early or late May?

Across the resorts with snow this month, the first half of May has usually been the surer fortnight: 2 resorts had more snow-sure days late in the month and 21 resorts early on. Each resort’s own month page has its numbers.

Questions

Where is the best snow for skiing in May?

Among the 44 resorts Cirque models, Tignes (11 of 11), Chamonix (11 of 11), Zermatt (11 of 11), Cervinia (11 of 11) and Val Thorens (10 of 11) have had the most reliable natural snow in May over the last 11 winters, counted as winters where mid-mountain had 30 cm or more on at least 90% of days.

Is May a good time to ski?

It is a shoulder month. A few high or late-season resorts have natural snow; most rely on snowmaking or are closed.

Does this include snowmaking?

No. These are modelled natural snow figures only, from ERA5 weather. Groomed pistes with snowmaking often ski better than this.

Is snow getting less reliable?

Eleven winters show how much one season differs from the next, not a long-term trend. Cirque does not draw trend conclusions from this record.