Where to ski in September: the surest natural snow

The short answer

Six of the 44 resorts Cirque models were snow-sure in September in at least 9 of the last 11 winters, meaning mid-mountain had 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow on at least 90% of September days. The surest: The Remarkables (11 of 11 winters), Cardrona (11 of 11 winters), Las Leñas (11 of 11 winters), Treble Cone (10 of 11 winters) and Cerro Catedral (10 of 11 winters).

29 northern-hemisphere resorts had natural snow at mid-mountain on fewer than 5% of September days, so they are left out below. The counts in brackets are snow-sure winters out of the last 11.

New Zealand

Snow-sure: The Remarkables (11 of 11), Cardrona (11 of 11) and Treble Cone (10 of 11). Hit and miss: Mt Hutt (6 of 11), Coronet Peak (4 of 11) and Whakapapa (4 of 11).

Australia

Hit and miss: Perisher (4 of 11). A gamble: Mt Hotham (2 of 11), Falls Creek (1 of 11), Thredbo (0 of 11) and Mt Buller (0 of 11).

South America

Snow-sure: Las Leñas (11 of 11), Cerro Catedral (10 of 11) and Valle Nevado (9 of 11). Hit and miss: Portillo (6 of 11).

Go high

At Coronet Peak, Mt Hutt and Portillo, the summit was snow-sure in September in at least 9 of the last 11 winters when mid-mountain was not. If you are going to one of these in September, the top of the mountain is where natural snow has been dependable.

Early or late September?

Across the resorts with snow this month, the first half of September has usually been the surer fortnight: no resort had more snow-sure days late in the month and 8 resorts early on. Each resort’s own month page has its numbers.

Questions

Where is the best snow for skiing in September?

Among the 44 resorts Cirque models, The Remarkables (11 of 11), Cardrona (11 of 11), Las Leñas (11 of 11), Treble Cone (10 of 11) and Cerro Catedral (10 of 11) have had the most reliable natural snow in September over the last 11 winters, counted as winters where mid-mountain had 30 cm or more on at least 90% of days.

Is September a good time to ski?

In the southern hemisphere, yes: it is the main season in New Zealand, Australia and South America.

Does this include snowmaking?

No. These are modelled natural snow figures only, from ERA5 weather. Groomed pistes with snowmaking often ski better than this.

Is snow getting less reliable?

Eleven winters show how much one season differs from the next, not a long-term trend. Cirque does not draw trend conclusions from this record.