Comparison
Falls Creek vs Thredbo: which has more reliable snow?
Falls Creek or Thredbo? Natural snow month by month, at the village, mid-mountain and summit, from eleven winters of weather data.
Month by month
Each cell is one month: the share of days with 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow at mid-mountain over the last 11 winters, from brown (often thin) to deep blue (snow-sure). Blank means almost none.
The short answer
Neither has been reliably snow-sure in any month over the last 11 winters, but Falls Creek has had the better odds, especially in August.
Month by month
June: Falls Creek 0 of 11, Thredbo 0 of 11 snow-sure winters (9% and 8% of days).
July: Falls Creek 1 of 11, Thredbo 1 of 11 snow-sure winters (18% and 15% of days).
August: Falls Creek 4 of 11, Thredbo 2 of 11 snow-sure winters (43% and 45% of days).
September: Falls Creek 1 of 11, Thredbo 0 of 11 snow-sure winters (27% and 13% of days).
A snow-sure winter is one where mid-mountain had 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow on at least 90% of that month’s days.
Height and terrain
Falls Creek and Thredbo are 100 km apart as the crow flies. Falls Creek first, then Thredbo: Village 1,500 m against 1,365 m; Mid-mountain 1,640 m against 1,701 m; Summit 1,780 m against 2,037 m. Mapped downhill runs: Falls Creek 40 km, Thredbo 55 km (OpenStreetMap).
In August, the village had 30 cm or more of natural snow on 34% of days at Falls Creek and 8% at Thredbo.
Questions
Which has more reliable snow, Falls Creek or Thredbo?
Neither has been reliably snow-sure in any month over the last 11 winters, but Falls Creek has had the better odds, especially in August.
Which has better snow down to the village, Falls Creek or Thredbo?
In August, Falls Creek: its village had 30 cm or more of modelled natural snow on 34% of days, against 8%.
Does this include snowmaking?
No. These are modelled natural snow figures only, from ERA5 weather. Groomed pistes with snowmaking often ski better than this.